2006 US Open Preview:
Womens Draw

Scott Ferguson

A remarkable women's draw - none of the big names seem to be fit with so many having missed events lately due to fatigue or soreness. Mauresmo, Sharapova, Henin-Hardenne, Petrova, Pierce, Jankovic, Vaidisova and Davenport all have some form of query against them.

THE SEEDS and FLOATERS

1. Mauresmo - Now a dual Grand Slam winner which will give her immense confidence after years of underachievement in the Slams. Missed the lead-in Tier I events with a shoulder strain. Her first test looks like Ivanovic in R4 - she'll need to be ready for it as Ivanovic is one of the few fit girls left! With her nerves gone, she is a genuine chance at the business end of every Slam. 7

2. Henin-Hardenne - In the New Haven final after a brief let-up due to a right knee injury. Plays well in the States, but not as dominantly as she does on clay where her heavy top-spin style is more effective. If her body holds up, then her chances are excellent. Need not fear anyone, Davenport or Dementieva in the quarters look to be her first decent test. 4.5

3. Sharapova - Rather easy draw in her quarter, won Tier I event in San Diego before losing to Dementieva in LA. Then claimed she was fatigued and missed Montreal. Loves the US hardcourt season, lost to eventual winner Clijsters here last year. Claims to be in her best shape of the year, but has negative records against the top two seeds. 5

4. Dementieva - One of the better fit players. Reached a final here two years ago, and in solid enough form. Despite her mediocre serve, she's got to be a big chance to win this. Her draw is relatively easy until the semis, it could finally be her turn. 16

5. Petrova - All the hard work she put in over the past 12 months is being eroded by her terrible form since the end of May. Consecutive first-round losses in five tournaments make her chances here remote. 200

6. Kuznetsova - Winner here in 2004 and seems to maintain her fitness better than most. Hasn't won many events since that fateful day two years ago though. Round 4 against Jankovic or Vaidisova will be her first test, followed by Dementieva and Henin-Hardenne. 25

7. Schnyder - Dominates the lower-tier events, had never made an impact at a Slam in over a decade of trying. 150

8. Hingis - Fitter than most of her rivals, but still easy prey for the bigger hitters. Flogged by Ivanovic in the Montreal final. Safina in R4 will be her first tough one, followed by Mauresmo or Ivanovic. 25

9. Vaidisova - The leggy Czech blonde has made rapid progress this season but a shoulder injury a fortnight ago creates a query. The serve is one of her key assets - if she's not over it, her price drifts markedly. 34

10. Davenport - Had come back well from her injury layoff, reaching the final at New Haven, but then retired in the final with a shoulder problem. Not a good sign two days before the event. 40

11. Myskina - Looked like she was getting some form back then fell in R1 at both her last two events. Too inconsistent for my liking, but good enough on her day. Plays last year's junior champion Azarenka in R1. 125

12. Safina - Her brother broke through at this event back in 2000, could it be her turn soon? Should make it to the first weekend without any worries, and is good enough to claim a few scalps as well. Missed New Haven with an elbow injury. 125

13. Pierce - Has missed most of the year, surprised she has still hung onto this ranking. No match fitness, could go very early unless she's had some miraculous training off the court. 200

14. Schiavone - Will win a few matches but never a danger of any more. 500

15. Groenefeld - Coming through the ranks, but hasn't been able to beat the top players as needed to win such a tourney. 500

16. Ivanovic - In stunning form, smashing Hingis in straight sets in Montreal. Now that she has taken out a Tier I event, the next step is a Slam. She's got the talent. 25

17. Hantuchova - Pulls off the odd surprise but not a tournament winner. Has the unseeded Serena Williams in R2 to spice up the often bland early rounds, then Ivanovic and Mauresmo. The draw has done her no favours at all. 1000

18. Pennetta - Doesn't beat players above her. 500

19. Jankovic - Classy and capable of beating players above her ranking. One to keep an eye on, had a shoulder concern in Montreal which is a worry. 80

20. Kirilenko - Yet to show she's any more likely to win something of note than Kournikova. 500

FLOATERS

Serena Williams - Has been so plagued by injury (or her acting career) that she has dropped out of the top 100 and needed a wildcard. Can blast most of her opposition off the court on one leg, but lack of match fitness expected to take its toll when she faces anyone of quality. 50

Alexa Glatch - Runner-up in the girls' final last year but still to be released into the open category. One to watch for the future. 800

Vera Zvonareva - Finding winning form again with recent tournament wins. Former top 10 player, could cause a shock or two. 200

THE BETS

Sharapova is my lead pick but not much value at the price. I can't support Henin-Hardenne away from clay. At the price I'll be laying her, this event is far more open than her price suggests. A small interest on Dementieva and Ivanovic is worth a look.