Nick Tedeschi's NFL Previews and Selections 2005

Posted Tuesday the 31st of January

Seatle (+3.5) v Pittsburgh (+4.0 @1.99 Pinnacle Sports)

See Nick's latest article for reasons behind this selection here.

Posted Friday the 20th of January.

Seattle (-3.5) v Carolina (-3.5 @ 1.96 Pinnacle Sports): The Hawks are headed to their first Super Bowl. The loss of DeShaun Foster to an ankle injury has meant the Panthers will enter the Conference Championship game with a one dimensional offense. Without the threat of a serious running game, Seattle will be able to put double and triple coverage on Carolina's only offensive weapon Steve Smith. Smith is a gun, an absolute superstar, but with that kind of coverage, he may be nullified. And with Smith covered up, Delhomme will have nothing because the truth of the matter is, Smith is the only reason Delhomme looks remotely competent. Delhomme is a loose cannon with vision for only one man so the chance of a pick or two is high because he will undoubtedly try and drive it in to Smith rather than look for other options. The Panthers will struggle to score. To make matters worse, all star Julius Peppers is in doubt. He is one of the best pass-rushers in the game and if he is out or playing with injury, much of the pressure that the Panthers will need to put on Hasselbeck will not be there. The Hawks have options. The Panthers don't. The Hawks and reasonably comfortably.

Pitt (+3) @ Denver (+3.0 Sportsbet): This game will be tough. Evenly matched offenses. Evenly matched defenses. Evenly coached sides. Where the Steelers will win this game is class and experience. The Steelers just have a touch of class about them. While Big Ben and Plummer both have top numbers this year, Big Ben is a class act while Plummer has a track record of failure and stupidity, despite this year. The Steelers running game is more versatile and that could really hurt Denver if Pitt hit an early lead. And in regards experience, one key point here is Denver's recruitment of 4 Browns defensive linemen in the off season. The Steelers played twice against this four last year and destroyed them. Pitt, it would appear, should be able to give Big Ben adequate protection and with the Steelers likely to pass early on, this is crucial. The Steelers in a close one.

NFL Playoffs Week Two Posted Thursday the 12th of January.

Denver (-3) vs New England (-3.0 @ 1.885 Pinnacle Sports): The redemption of Jake Plummer will be complete when the Broncos finish off Brady, Bellichik and the Pats on Sunday morning. Denver have more options in offense than the passing Pats, they are a far superior defensive side than the injury ravaged Pats D and the game will be played at the stadium that deals out the biggest home ground advantage in the NFL. The Broncos have it all over the Pats. A significant stat that really hammers home the Denver bet is the turnover ratios of both teams. In the playoffs, where a pick or a fumble can often decide who goes onto Superbowl glory and who wallows in misery for a year, the ability to hold the ball is crucial. Denver's TO ratio is +22. The Pat's is -6. Denver just appear too strong. I like the Pats but they have been flattered by their powder puff second half schedule and will really struggle at Mile High this weekend. If they didn't have Brady, i'd declare the Bronco's. Whilst they aren't certainties, the Broncos are very good bets at the -3.

Pittsburgh (+9) @ Indianapolis (+9.5 @ 2.0 Pinnacle Sports): The Steelers match up really well against the Colts and are a very good chance of progressing to the Conference Championship. Big Ben is a year more experienced, fully fit and throwing sensationally. The Steelers two pronged running game is firing. Offensively, they are nearly on par with the high octane Colts and in the playoff atmosphere, probably look just a little better. Peyton does not have a stellar playoff record. Pitt's defensive performance against the Colts in their 26-7 loss also gave Steelers fans hope for their clash this week. Aside from an 80 yard play to start the Colts offense, the Stellers really shut Manning down. They match up extremely well defensively. The Steelers have also seemingly prepared very well for the game. The move to a silent count to overcome the noise problems they encountered last time is a positive sign. The Steelers at the plus are the bet of the week. A little interest in the head-to-head may also be wise.

NFL Playoffs Week One Posted Saturday the 7th of January.

Carolina @ NY Giants (2.22 @ Pinnacle Sports): This is difficult for me to say. Real difficult. But, here goes. The Jake Delhomme-led Carolina Panthers are my best bet of the week. Wow. It is really hard to believe I am saying that. But there are reasons. Playoff games are nearly always won by defense (and good QB's but in this game, that point seems irrelevant) and the Panthers are a much better defensive side than the Giants. More importantly, the Panthers have a great run defense. The Giants will rely on Tiki...they have too...Eli certainly won't put them into week 2. If the Panthers can negate Tiki, and I think they will be able to at least contain him, they will shut down the Giants offense. Conversely, the Panthers strength in attack is in the air. Steve Smith is the best wideout in the NFL and he will be matched up against the 6th worst pass defense in the NFL. With a forecast of cold, yet dry, weather, the Panthers should be able to use their passing game effectively. The Panthers to win on the road at Giants stadium on the back of some solid run defense and a Steve Smith blinder.

Pitt (-3) @ Cincinatt (-3.0 @ 2.01 Pinnacle Sports): The Bengals will prove to one and all that they are the most overrated team in the NFL. A soft schedule and they could still only go 11 and 5. Palmer has lost his touch. The defense has disappeared. And they are against a quality team who can run and throw and who have finally hit their stride. The Roth will carve up the Bengals D and when he's not, The Bus or Willie will. Pitt are a much better team than Cincy and if the Steelers had the Bengals schedule and the Roth was fit all year, this game would be in Pittsburgh. The Steelers to end the 2005 Bengal joke.

NFL round 16 posted 21st December

New England (-6) @ NY Jets (-7 @ 1.926 Pinnacle Sports): Two words. The Cold. Tom Brady has an amazing record in the Arctic-esque condidtions and New York isn't real warm this time of year. The Pats are coming good (admittedly on the back of an easy schedule) and if the mercury is as low as expected, the Pats should cover six against a directionless Jets.

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5 @ 2.05 Pinnacle Sports): This seems like a major overreaction to the Ravens death blow to the Brett Favre-era. It was kinda sad to see the once great Favre play like a mule in the throes of an alcohol binge, but thats by-the-by. The point is The Pack played so bad they made even Kyle Boller look good. The Vikings are still playing well...it is no shame losing to the Steelers. Johnson has changed this team, added consistency. I think the Vikings will win this one. If you back the boys from Minneapolis, at least you'll be backing the better team.

Philadelphia @ Arizona (2.02 Pinnacle Sports): It is very difficult to believe a Kurt Warner-less Cards are favourites against anybody. They lost to the Texans last week and the gentlemen from Houston weren't even trying to win. And this ain't Jerry Maguire. Philly-even without McNabb and without T.O and even with that fool Andy Reid (who I truly believe is under the impression he is a professional basketball coach) calling the plays- are better than Arizona without Warner. Philly should get the job done. I didn't think i'd be saying that again this year.

San Diego @ Kansas City (1.971 Pinnacle Sports): The Chargers beat Indy. I'll repeat that. They beat Indy. Call me simplistic, but that seems like a pretty good form line. And Brees looked pretty good. And LT was at his dominating best. And the Charger D was The Balls. And, of course, KC are coming off a loss to "The Other Manning". A tough game but San Diego look too good a bet to pass up.

NY Giants (+3.5) @ Washington (+3.5 @ 1.95 Sportingbet): The line for this game should not be greater than a field goal. I have tended to underrate the Skins this year and I have paid for it but I don't care how much you rate the Skins, they are not 3.5 point faves over the Giants in what will be a tough, hard divisional battle. Tiki Barber is playing for NFL MVP and the Giants are trying to clinch the NFC East. This game will be tough. Back the Giants. The line, to my eye, is too big.

Dallas (+6) @ Carolina (+6 Sportingbet): Surely Dallas can't play that bad again. The Packers would have beaten the Cowboys last weekend and the Pack struggle to beat themselves these days. And I like backing against Delhomme. He is soft and dumb and, well,  really dumb. Carolina are overrated. They certainly don't deserve to be six point favourites. I like the Cowboys again this week and will pray that Bledsoe has got over his bout of Favre Fever.

NFL round 15 posted 14th December

Seattle (-7) @ Tennessee (-7 @ 1.96 Pinnacle Sports):  Seattle are flying at the moment while Tennessee almost lost to a team in the midst of tanking their season. Hasselbeck is showing poise, Alexander will be chasing the TD record and the Seattle D is looking as good as it has all year. Tennessee, on the other hand, have looked dreadful in creeping home against Houston and SF and they got touched up by Indy-one of the only teams to do so all year. Seattle should wipe the floor with the all mighty Titans.

Arizona (-1) @ Houston (-1 @ 2.0 Pinnacle Sports): Houston are tossing the season so they can get Reggie Bush in the draft next year. It's shameful. How else can that shanked easy FG to send the Titans game to OT be explained? Arizona are playing competently enough and should beat Houston, even if they were trying. They are certainly playing well enough to beat a team who is trying to lose. The Cards to win. The only worry is that Houston will be so ashamed by their transparent attempt to lose last week that they may be embarrassed into playing reasonably well. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Dallas @ Washington (2.24 Pinnacle Sports): I cannot work out how Dallas are not favourites in this game. They have a better record, a better team and have a lot more to play for. Dallas need to win. Bledsoe is going nicely and the Cowboys will be pumped after their comeback win against KC. Dallas are on a high while Washington, despite winning two on the trot, are not looking too flash. They needed a punt return to beat the Cards, which is not a good sign. The Cowboys with a fair degree of the old confidence.

NFL round 14 posted 9th December

INDY (-7.5) @ Jacksonville (-8 @ 1.91 Sports Acumen): This line seems just a tad too small. While Indy rarely hammer teams into oblivion, they have rarely let oppositions get too close either. And they have been in ominous form the last few weeks, touching up both Pitt and Tennessee. The Jags without Leftwich will struggle to score against a defence of the highest order. The Colts to cover.

Tampa Bay (+6) @ Carolina (+6 @ 1.91 Sportingbet): This will be dour. A low scoring affair that will be one by the D. And six just seems too high for an affair of this type. The Bucs travel well (4-2 on the road) and are in form.  I hate to back Chris Simms but this can be offset by betting against Jake Delhomme (a very worthy past time). The Bucs to win in a low scoring game for the purists.

NFL round 13 posted 2nd December

Cleveland (+3) v Jacksonville (+3.0 @ 1.87 Pinnacle Sports): I'm not convinced by the Jags. And with Leftwich out, I think the Browns can cause a minor upset here and roll  them. The Browns play well at home (3/5) and have even racked up a win against the Bears there. This will be a dour affair and taking the Browns with 3 seems too good an opportunity to miss.

Oakland (+10.5) @ San Diego (+11.5.0 @ 1.93 Pinnacle Sports): Ludicrous line. The Chargers did only beat the skins in OT last week it has to be remembered. Oakland are a good road team (even if they can't win at home) and I think 10.5 is way too big. Oakland at the plus, bet of the week.

San Francisco (+3) v Arizona (+3.0 @ 1.935 Pinnacle Sports): The Niners have not been playing that bad and look an improved team from when they got soundly beaten by Arizona in week 4. If it wasn't for a disatorous third quarter last week, they would have beaten Tennessee. They came within inches of taking Seattle to OT. I think the Niners are on the up and can beat the Cards.

NFL round 12 posted 23rd November

San Diego (-3) @ Washington: (-3 @ 1.95 with Sportingbet) Brees. LTD. The Schot. They're all there, they are all on fire and they are up against a Skins side crushed by a buzzer beating clutch shot against the Bucs two weeks back and hurt at home by a Kerry Collins-led Raiders last week. And they are only giving three. The Skins are shot. You can fairly safely avoid them for the rest of the year. Their spirit was crushed by the Bucs like a rat on a building site. The Chargers travel well and are riding high after a big win against the Bills. The Chargers should cover. Bet of the week.

Dallas (+1.5) v Denver (+2.5 @ 1.98 with Pinnacle Sports): I actually had Dallas favourites for this game. They are a solid bet at the line and straight out. I'm warming to the Cowboys this year. They have it all. They run well. Bledsoe, if he can avoid one of his stinker's, is still top class. Terry Glenn and Keyshawn out wide are still two of the best catcher's in the NFL. And they are very hard to beat at home, going 4 and 1 this year. Denver, while going sensationally and being the hardest team to beat in the NFL at home, have not been world beaters on the road. And they have Jake Plummer. Jesus, I still cannot convince myself that this guy is a good, solid quarterback with one of the best TD/Turnover ratios in the NFL. It's Jake Plummer! But, Shanahan has him going...Anyway, Dallas are riding high after their come-from-behind win at Philly on MNF two weeks back...The Cowboys to win.

Carolina (-4) @ Buffalo (-4 @ 1.95 with Pinnacle Sports): Buffalo are toilet. Carolina will be steeled after going down to the Bears. Carolina should teach the Bills a lesson they won't soon forget. The only upside for Buffalo is their stellar home record, but that shouldn't be enough to save them from the wrath of one of the NFC's top teams. Carolina.

St.Louis (-3.5) @ Houston (-3.5 @ 1.97 with Pinnacle Sports):  I thought Houston were some chance against KC last week. Watching the game, I realised how wrong I was when Carr dropped the snap on the second play of the game. It is like watching a couple of city folk read a map. Amusing in a kind of sad way. I cannot see Houston winning another game. They can't even get the basics right. St.Louis, with their nice offense, should put a few points on Houston this week. And when I say a few, I mean a lot. This game won't be pretty to watch. There could be blood. The Rams and well.

Saturday the 19th of November

SR4 N5 Sherwood Forest This Rogy trained horse is flying and should just win the staying race at Sydney tomorrow. Fuji is riding sensationally and this horse will stay all day. He improved at every step up in distance and despite the class rise, should be too good for this lot. He is a winner in a race bereft of too many horses with a strong ticker and a little pace. Anything above 2-1 would be a very good price.

NFL Round 11

Indianapolis (-5.5) @ Cincinatti (1.96 with Pinnacle Sports): To my eye, Cincinatti are as overrated as Shane Watson. Carson Palmer and co. have a stellar record thanks and thanks only to those folk who drafted the schedules. Cincinatti have been pitted against one quality side this season, Pittsburgh (a Charlie Batch-led Pitt at that), and they were soundly defeated. Indy will beat the Bengals. Manning is the best regular season QB and will carve up the Bengals defence. The Colts also have a nice habit of peaking for their big regular season games which should see them near their best for this clash. The Colts should win comfortably and expose the Bengals for the frauds they are. Bet of the week.

Oakland (+6) @ Washington(1.96 with Pinnacle Sports): I am of the opinion Oakland are on the up and Washingotn are slip sliding their way to 2005 mediocrity. I may be wrong, but that is how i'm prepared to bet this week. Oakland have played well away this year (despite the fact they are 1-for-4) and despite the fact Kerry Collins has been looking a bit shaky of late, they have some quality players on their list. The primary reason I don't like Washington is the bleating and moaning that has gone on after their controversial loss to the Bucs. These things have a tendency to distract and one thing is for certain, it does not help the mental preparation of the team. I like the Raiders, but not with as much confidence as the Colts.

NFL Round 10

SAN FRANCISCO (+13) @1.99 at Chicago: This line is absolutley ludicrous. Kyle Orton, the Bears QB, is average at best and in reality is closer to mediocre. The Niners aren't travellin too bad despite their record. They did beat Tampa Bay two weeks back and were in the Giants game most of the way last week. Not bad for a team without a QB. Most importantly, there defence has been solid lately. They held Manning's Giants to 24 last week and the Bucs to 10 the week before that. They have reacted well to getting flogged by the Skins three weeks back. The Niners +13 is a great bet.

DALLAS (+3) @ at Philly: After the events of the last week (TO being shown the door), it is doubtful whether Philly have spent too much time focusing on this crunch divisional game against a very consistent and well performed Dallas. Bledsoe is throwing well and the only team they have lost to in the last month is Seattle. Not bad. Dallas, prepared off a bye, against Philly- a poorly coached and inconsistent team- a rattled and distracted outfit. The game will be decided on how Philly respond to this turmoil. I'm prepared to bet heavily against them.

SEATTLE (-7) @1.87 v St Louis: I'm not a big believer in betting on big minuses but when the line should be -10 or 11 and it is only 7, get on board. For the same reasons outlined last week, Seattle should beat St. Louis and do it easily. The Hawks have the best running back, in my opinion, in the NFL in Shaun Alexander and Hasselbeck is controlling things well. The Hawks will win and should cover the seven.

KC (+2.5) at Buffalo: KC travel well and have shown in the last few weeks that they are a team to be reckoned with, winning 3-of-4. Losing Priest Holmes hurts but they should still be too good for a Bills lacking in creativity and identity. KC are on the up. Buffalo are mired in mediocrity. KC are a good bet. Confident, but not as much as the above three games.