Here we go again with the glitz and glamour of SW19. Instead of a dream replay of last year’s final, we are faced with Roger Federer heading back to king of the world and Andy Murray sending the British press into a frenzy by reaching the final with a live chance of winning. Of course, if he gets beaten on centre court while the new roof is in use, there’ll be a petition sent to Downing St demanding it be torn down!

THE SEEDS

1 Rafael Nadal – out

2 Roger Federer – career Slam done, now it’s full steam ahead for the all-time Slam tournament record and regaining the number one ranking. Pulled out of Halle for a well-earned rest. Won five titles in a row before last year’s classic final, and has played in 15 of the last 16 Grand Slam tournament finals. His last loss on grass before the 08 final was way back in 2002. Has Soderling R4, Verdasco/Tsonga QF then Djokovic in the semi. How do they beat him? 1.7

3 Andy Murray – won Queen’s, his serve is now becoming a weapon. If my calculations are right, there’s an outside chance he could be world no.1 if he wins the title. He’d also be knighted, be automatic BBC Sports Personality of the Year and given an open-top bus parade through every village in Scotland. Can’t see any banana skins in his draw, with only Safin or Gonzalez capable of giving him any problem before the semis. 4

4 Novak Djokovic – lost to Haas in Halle final and beat only one player in top 50 to get there. R2 exit last year means he has less points to defend – a good result would make him less vulnerable to the likes of del Potro. Semi-finalist in 07 when retired in the semi. His game is picked off a little easier now, but if at his best, can go deep. 14

5 Juan Martin Del Potro – the man who has moved into Rafa’s position. Hasn’t done much on grass as yet, you’d give him a chance based on his stature, but lack of prep event is concerning. Hewitt R2 will test him if he hasn’t adjusted to the surface properly. 50

6 Andy Roddick  – tough openers against Chardy followed by Dimitrov, both former junior champions. Minor ankle sprain at Queen’s caused him to retire, has been practising fine this week. Twice a finalist here, but last three yrs have been poor in comparison. Much more consistent this year with new coach. In the quarter weakened by Nadal, good chance to make the semis. 34

7 Fernando Verdasco – twice R4 here in last three yrs, and a better player now. Lead-in form poor, beaten by big-servers suited to fast courts at Halle and Rosmalen. In the bottom quarter, should meet Tsonga or Karlovic for the right to play Federer, although Mahut R2 can be dangerous. Not quite as wristy as Nadal, whose game adapts beautifully for this surface. Not the worst. 80

8 Gilles Simon – very soft section of the draw, has opportunity to progress through first week without playing his best. Had knee troubles at Queen’s, played exho losing to Lapentti. 500

9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – lost to Haas in Halle, then played the Boodles exhibition, beating Dimitrov but losing to Davydenko. Only played main draw here once, reaching R4 when #110 in the world. Will need his game tuned to face Karlovic R3. If he can weather that storm, then he’s capable of anything. 40

10 Fernando Gonzalez – reached QF here in 05, but never better than the third round otherwise. Draw is wide open for him to at least equal his best. 200

11 Marin Cilic – beaten first match at Queen’s by hot qualifier with excellent grass game. R4 here last yr. Del Potro leaves his 1/8th of the draw, making it rather open. If he gets past Haas R3, he’s a chance to win this quarter. 140

12 Nikolay Davydenko – record here is usually appalling, hates the British media ‘unfairly’ tagging his as a match-fixer. But has played an exho this week, beating Lopez and Tsonga in match tie-breaks (one set all, then tie-break of first to 10). British press will be all over him as he plays a young Brit who supposedly has a bit of a future in R1. Should go a few rds if he wins the mind battle. 400

13 Robin Soderling – breakthrough result in Paris, but no prep event on grass. Never past R3 here but did take Nadal to five sets back in 07. 140

14 Marat Safin – surprise semi-finalist last year, beating Djokovic and Wawrinka. Wimbledon was his worst Slam before that. Once SF, once QF, only seven wins in seven other starts. Form this season does not suggest a repeat of last year. 300

15 Tommy Robredo – utterly useless here. 1000

16 David Ferrer – lost to Navarro in Rosmalen. Ranking dropping after weaker clay season than normal. Easy R1 then should face Istomin R2 who can play on this surface. 500

17 James Blake – moves into del Potro’s place in the Rafa shuffle. Tricky R1 against Seppi. Made final at Queen’s but has done that before. Never past R3 in six visits and losses haven’t been to big names either. 1000

18 Rainer Schuettler – served for match against Becker (Rosmalen SF) and choked. Surprise semi-finalist last year after two straight rd1 exits, but the draw parted for him like Moses and the Red Sea. Tough R1 against Malisse, a qualifier who was a fluke semi-finalist back in 02. 800

24 Tommy Haas – won Halle title, beating Djokovic with aggressive serve-volley game. If that form continues, he can make the second week. 110

25 Dmitry Tursunov – smokey who goes ok on the green stuff. R3 or 4 in all four main draw appearances here, and in Eastbourne final on Saturday. Not a million to one, definitely trade material. 200

Floaters and Notables

Lleyton Hewitt – take away Nadal and suddenly his task becomes a whole lot easier. Mind you, del Potro in R2 is still a very stiff task. Three of his six defeats here since he won in 02 have been to Federer. 200

Grigor Dimitrov – won the juniors here last year, has a huge game and could shock a big name if things went his way. 500

Jeremy Chardy – junior winner here in 05, solid game but prone to the odd break in concentration, which can prove more costly on grass than any other surface. Not far from his first tournament win, but this won’t be it just yet. 500

Taylor Dent – great story for him to have qualified after long battle with back injury and being in a torso cast for best part of a year. Stamina will probably stop him in the end, but we’ve seen big-serving longshots go all the way here before. 1000

Sam Querrey – massive serve may take him through a few matches but being six foot six and anchored to the baseline only works if you have the game of del Potro. 1000

BETS

Do we take the odds-on on Federer? How can you not?! This might be stating the obvious, but the facts are he has had one loss here in six years, at the hands of a super-human player who isn’t playing this year. Anything above 1.8 is value.

4pts Federer 1.8 and above (@1.865 Betfair post 5% comm.)

0.25pt Tursunov 1000 on Betfair to trade.

With the draw being re-arranged, markets to win each quarter of the draw weren’t available at time of going to press. If I spot anything, I’ll send an update through on Sunday.

© 2009 Punting Ace.com