US OPEN 2007 - Women's Draw

As is often the case during the Federer era, the women's draw again looks the more interesting from a punting angle. There have been nine different champions in the past eleven years at Flushing Meadow, with only the Williams sisters having won multiple titles (each with two). A stat worth noting in the final is that those same 11 years, not once has the final gone to three sets.

Justine Henin heads the market as world no.1 but her record here is quite poor. Just one win from eight visits is ordinary for a player ranked in the top 10 for over six years. There's a case to be made for several of her rivals.

SEEDS in draw order

1. Justine Henin - as mentioned above, her record here is nothing to brag about. She made the final here last year and won in 2003, but beyond that she has five R4 exits and lost on debut back in 1999. How she lost to Bartoli at Wimbledon after being a set and a break up is still baffling, and punters who put the house on her at 1.01 now reside in second-hand caravans. One start since then, winning the Rogers Cup in Toronto, defeating Jankovic in two tight sets. She can win this, but her price is terrible. 5

17. Tatiana Golovin - reached the semis in Toronto, losing to Jankovic in three after defeating Schiavone and Kuznetsova. It took Sharapova to beat her here last year, in two tiebreakers in the quarters, after wins over Radwanska, Petrova and Chakvetadze. She is now maturing into a very good player, and will make a charge at one of these events soon enough. Faces Safina in R3 and Henin in R4, don't write her off. 66

15. Dinara Safina - quarter-finalist in singles and runner-up in doubles here last year, so happy memories for her. She'll need something to spark her form as since Wimbledon, she's been ordinary. Losses to Mirza, K.Bondarenko (likely R2 opponent) and Daniilidou defy her ranking. Doubt we'll see her in week two. 400

10. Marion Bartoli - the big surprise of this year reaching the final at Wimbledon. Since then though, either the results have gone to her head or players have started to work her out - she's 4-5 post-Wimbledon and her hardcourt record for the year is 9-12, far different to previous years in which she always won more than she lost. Could the higher bounce limit the effect of her double-handed style? Safarova R3 and Serena R4 will test her. 250

8. Serena Williams - unsighted since Wimbledon, first with that controversial calf injury and more recently with a thumb problem. If she turns up fit, she must be a huge chance. Bartoli R4, Henin in the quarters and Jankovic in the semi - a tough draw, but we all know she is capable. 8

3. Jelena Jankovic - absolutely tireless, having played 79 matches so far this year. Reaching the business end of most tournaments is very draining on a player, but she shows little sign of fatigue. Hopefully she'll begin to dilute her schedule in an effort to preserve her body before it's too late. Took last week off to freshen up for an assault on her first Grand Slam trophy. Should race through the first week before meeting Venus (h2h 3-2) or Ivanovic (h2h 1-4) in the QF. But she has to overcome the 0-7 record v Henin if she is to go all the way. 9

14. Elena Dementieva - retired on Friday with nausea when one-set all with Kuznetsova at New Haven, but should be over that quickly. Her ranking is now on a downward slide away from the top ten, the first week though shouldn't be too tough for her, but Jankovic will eat her for breakfast. 500

12. Venus Williams - Wimbledon winner again but it has been five years since she was a dominant force here. Grass suits her dominant style; stamina and match fitness are bigger pre-requisites for hardcourt. Holds a 3-0 record vs Ivanovic, her likely R4 opponent, a stat which will probably do Jankovic a favour. Can win but I can only back her on grass. 20

5. Ana Ivanovic - another player queuing up to win her first big one. Won the Tier II event in LA, claiming the scalps of Jankovic and Petrova along the way, then was probably exhausted and lost to Zi Yan in her first match in Toronto. After reaching the final at Roland Garros and semis at Wimbledon, she is getting close to that breakthrough. 11

7. Nadia Petrova - twice a quarter-finalist here, but is never going to win a Slam. 100

9. Daniela Hantuchova - just three QF appearances in 27 Grand Slams, and they were back in 2002-3. Worth opposing to reach the second week. 500

16. Martina Hingis - hasn't won three matches in a row since January. Radek Stepanek's form has picked up since their engagement was called off; is there a similar spike in results for Martina? Sadly, I think she's on the decline. 500

4. Svetlana Kuznetsova - has been dogged by injury in recent months, a consequence of playing so many matches. A winner here in 2004, she has been on a winning run at New Haven in the lead-up event. She has the easy quarter, if she's ever going to win another title, this is the time. 22

6. Anna Chakvetadze - career-high ranking due to a brilliant run of form, picking up six titles in the past year. Likely to face Schnyder R4 before Sharapova in the QF. Is she able to take the next step? She is more of a counter-puncher than dominant shot-maker, but she's steadily moving forward. 35

11. Patty Schnyder - 45 Grand Slam appearances, just one semi-final and four QFs. Don't get too excited about her chances here, she's a choker. 300

13. Nicole Vaidisova - has reached the last eight of each Slam this year, but hasn't played since Wimbledon due to glandular fever. You don't come back from that and instantly regain top form. Drawn to face Kudryavtseva, the player who almost knocked out Venus Williams at Wimbledon, so she'd want to be fit and ready. 200

18. Shahar Peer - disappointing since returning to hardcourts. Losses to Govortsova, Mirza, and Razzano (twice) does not exude confidence. 500

30. Agnieszka Radwanska - won her first title recently in Stockholm and then lost a tight one to Kuznetsova in New Haven. Just scrapes into the seedings with her best-ever ranking, but she will be a top ten player in the not too distant future. Could prove a thorn in the side of bigger-name opponents. 350

2. Maria Sharapova - withdrew in LA due to a shin complaint and hasn't played since. Should be fit and ready to defend her crown. Has the better half of the draw, avoids the Serbs, Williams sisters and Henin until the final, and consequently has shortened in the betting since the draw. No excuses for her. 5

FLOATERS

Agnes Szavay - started the year at 189 and will be inside the top 40 next week. Multiple Grand Slam junior title winner now finding her range on the senior circuit. Beat three women seeded here in New Haven, so look out, she's on a roll. 150

Maria Kirilenko - had struggled for most of the year but since returning to American hardcourts, her form has turned around. Has beaten Safarova, Jankovic and Bartoli in the past month, she could be a dangerous floater. 250

Victoria Azarenka - just outside the seedings and still improving. Big hitter who can make the most of a rather weak quarter. 400

Tamira Paszek - junior finalist here last year, and now sits around 40 in the rankings. Took out Golovin and Dementieva at Wimbledon, and is a star in the making. 400

THE BETS

If you've followed my tips before, you've probably worked out I'm happy to take on Henin anytime she's favourite and it's not on clay. And the status quo remains here. She's a terrible price considering what lies ahead of her. No harm in waiting until the end of the first week to lay her at a shorter price either.

Cases can be made for several players to win including Sharapova, but I think Jankovic has her chance to win her first Slam here and is worth backing. Don't be surprised if there are many twists and turns during the fortnight, there could be quite a few decent trades available.

LAY Henin at 3.5 or less (risk 3pts stake)
BACK Jankovic at 9 and above (risk 2pts stake)

© Punting Ace.com 2007