French Open 2009, Men's Draw preview

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French Open 2009 Men's Draw

There really is little point covering the men’s title market, Rafael Nadal has a mortgage on it. He has never lost here in four years, and has lost just five matches in total on clay since Feb 05. Federer beat him in Madrid last week you might say. Conditions there were very different to Paris. A new venue, at altitude and the courts were extremely dry and dusty, which suits the fast court players. Nadal was hurting with a leg injury, just how he managed to beat Djokovic from a set and a break down while limping was incredible. If it wasn’t in Spain, he probably would have withdrawn from the final. He has played the Paris exhibition event this week, he’s fine again and the day on, day off format of Slams make chronic injuries manageable.

1. Nadal – owns Roland Garros. 1.33

2. Federer – has only missed one of the last 15 Grand Slam finals. Buoyed by Madrid conquest of Nadal. Could drop to no.4 here with a poor showing. Sets a very high standard. 8

3. Murray – just 5-4 on clay this year, he’ll work hard but can’t beat the best clay guys. On Nadal’s side of the draw, so won’t be getting past the semis. 30

4. Djokovic – brilliant spell on clay after making a mess of early season hardcourt events. Must beat del Potro to face Federer, who he has beaten twice in a row. 11

5. del Potro – his win over Nadal in Miami means he is getting close to competing with the top four. So far his record against them has been very poor, yet he has been belting everyone else. Despite his Latin background, he prefers hardcourts. 80

6. Roddick – more chance of a Richmond flag this year than this guy winning a major on clay. 1000

7. Simon - has the WTA disease of FITH syndrome (hint – ends in In The Head). 4-7 on clay this year, and none of his assailants have been ranked inside the top 25. Lost all confidence, he got lucky last year by working his tail off, now the wheels are falling off. 1000

8. Verdasco – six straight QFs since breakthrough result in Melbourne, just can’t quite crack the big names. Better off on hardcourt to find a way to beat them. 250

9. Tsonga – no good on clay, won’t get past R2. 1000

10. Davydenko – missed Kitzbuhel this week with a left thigh injury, not a genuine threat if he was fit anyway. 500

11. Monfils – semi-finalist here last year but struggling with patella tendonitis. Tried playing the exhibition event this week and really struggled. 1000

12. Gonzalez – semi-finalist in Barcelona and Rome but missed Munich and Madrid with an ankle injury. Tenth visit, best result quarter-finals (twice). 250

13. Cilic – won the junior title here in 05 but much better suited on faster surfaces. 500

14. Ferrer – fifth seed last year, ranking starting to suffer as his limitations are starting to become obvious. Good solid player, nothing more. 400

15. Blake – runner-up Estoril but miles away from the best on the dirt. 1000

16. Robredo – not done better than R3 in three clay Masters Series events this year. Limited. 500

17. Wawrinka – beat Federer in Monte Carlo, lost to del Potro in Rome and Madrid. More than nuisance value for the top seeds on his day. 300

18. Stepanek – retired with left knee injury in Madrid. Faces a revitalised Gaudio in R1. 0-7 in five –setters on clay. 1000

19. Berdych – won Munich title (winning three matches in final set breaker), then retired in Madrid when getting thumped by del Potro. Allegedly had a left thigh injury but I think that was a convenient excuse. Another of the Czechs & Slovaks who think it is acceptable to retire when a game or two away from losing – very poor sportsmanship. 500

20. Safin – lost four in a row on clay, really doesn’t care anymore. 500

Floaters

Chardy – beat Nalbandian and Tursunov here last year, reaching R4. Will be seeded in most Grand Slams from here on. 500

Monaco – former top 20 player fighting back from injury. Was 13th seed here last year. Has been in very good form, beating Nalbandian, Robredo, Murray, Cilic and Ferrer so far this year on clay. Reached R4 in 07. In tough section of the draw, same quarter as del Potro and Djokovic. 150

THE BETS

With just six players under 100 on Betfair, it’s very difficult to trade roughies unless one of the top four bomb out. Totesport offer 4.5 for the top four seeds to all reach the semis, quite tempting – the main risk I see is Djokovic, who must face del Potro and Monaco, which you could easily hedge, but I actually like Djokovic to reach the final.

I just can’t see any of the top four being beaten on the road to the semis, which will probably leave me with egg on my face, but c’est la vie. Concentrate on the match betting, I just can’t see anything here worthy of a recommendation.