French Open 2008 Betting Preview

	Downloads Bookmark this site Set as homepage Andrew W Scott

French Open 2008 Betting Preview - Mens Draw

Scott Ferguson

The French Tennis Federation are begrudgingly allowing wagering on this year’s French Open. Not that they had much choice –they tried to sue Betfair, Bwin and Ladbrokes in order to prevent tarnishing the image of the tournament (shame they forgot about two key players failing steroid tests back in 2004) but the Belgian court threw the case out, finding in favour of the bookmakers who had argued that gambling is a legal and ancestral practice in sport that has never been challenged until now. "Someone who offers a service cannot be rendered responsible for an inappropriate use of that service if he has taken steps to prevent such inappropriate use."

Anyhow, back to the tennis. This is not the easiest of tournaments to assess. The top three have shown signs of weakness in recent months and numerous players are under injury clouds. There are quite few good matches in R1, so they will hold most interest initially. Remember this is a Sunday start.

1. Federer - in his worst start to season in years. Loss to Stepanek in Rome a weird one. Has won just one event in 2008, the final in Estoril when Davydenko retired! Two losses to Nadal on clay (Monte Carlo and Hamburg) were close, so don't hit the panic button yet, but 27-7 is his worst start to the season since 2003. Has some dangerous claycourters in his quarter (Monaco, Wawrinka and Andreev) but he should be in good enough nick to reach the semis at least. His poor(er) results are partly due to a bout with glandular fever, but can some of it be marked down to focusing purely on Nadal and claiming this title?? 5

2. Nadal - broke his run of 2063 straight wins on clay by losing to JCF in Rome. Apparently it was severe blisters which is a concern as they tend to hang around. Has won three clay titles in the lead-up to Paris, but he just doesn't seem as dominant. Against Djokovic in Hamburg, he faced 19 break points and only got over the line because he converted better. No doubt he's now in the mentality of focus on the Slams and will be fit and firing. Faces Nalbandian/Almagro/Murray in the QF, then Djokovic in the semi. Any doubts on his fitness will be exposed in week two. 1.85

3. Djokovic - tonsillitis spoiled his Monte Carlo clash with Federer, but he bounced back to win in Rome and then a Hamburg loss to Nadal in what he described as possibly his best ever match, holding 19 break points (converting only 4) to Rafa's 9 (converted 5). He will take the no.2 ranking off Nadal if the Spaniard drops any points through Wimbledon, and the top spot is there for the taking should Federer not defend all his points either. Hungry and ready for another Slam trophy after his success in Melbourne. 6.5

4. Davydenko - semi-finalist here in two of last three years. Lost 7-5 7-6 7-6 to Federer last year, holding more break pts, just not converting enough. By winning the Miami Masters Series, perhaps he has a bit more belief in winning big events. Seems to have shaken off all the stigma of last year's betting scandal. Has played virtually every week this year as is his style, but early exits in Rome and Hamburg were probably good for him to get a short break. Real test will be Ferrer in the QF for that berth in the semi. 34

5. Ferrer - won Valencia, reached the final in Barcelona (v Nadal) and lost QF in Monte Carlo (v Nadal) so form not bad on the surface but either tired or mentally switched off in losses to Stepanek, Verdasco and Kohlschreiber since. As fifth seed, he's a target now for everyone else, he needs to be switched on. Record here isn't that great - one QF, twice R3 - he has done better than that in Melbourne and New York. Holds a 3-1 record over Robredo (likely R4 opponent), then needs to beat Davydenko in the QF for his first semi berth here. 60

6. Nalbandian - when he's hot, he's unbelievable, but when he's cold, he's just middle of the road. Losses in three of his last four matches after great early season form. Took a set off Federer in Monte Carlo (whom he has a great record against), but since then has also lost to Wawrinka and Almagro. Both young guns, but you'd expect him to at least get a set off one of them. At least he's fresh and fit unlike many. Record here is SF, R4, SF, R4 but he'll have to beat Nadal to see that trend continue (however the record is 2-0 Nalby, but no meetings on clay). 80

7. Blake - never past R3 here and whilst his first week draw is quite cushy, don't waste your money on seeing him at the business end. 1000

8. Gasquet - has gone off the boil this year and be complaining of exhaustion. Biggest sook on tour, retiring/giving walkovers 12 times in singles alone. Rubbish record here too, best result of R3. I'd be loading up on his opponent in every round. 1000

9. Wawrinka - was ranked 36 on Jan 1, has now cracked the top 10. Reached the final in Rome, taking the first set off Djokovic, then understandably tired when losing to the inspired Kiefer in Hamburg. Draw does him no favours (Kohlschreiber, Cilic/Haase, Gonzalez/Cuevas, Andreev) before a date with Federer. Never past R3 here but did win the junior title back in 03. 150

10. Murray - has missed most of the last two clay seasons, a key part of his development. Not going to win on clay and out of his depth v Nadal in Hamburg. Draw will open up if Almagro isn't fit. 500

11. Berdych - missed the early clay season after an ankle injury in Davis Cup play. Best result of R4 here back in 2006. Soft draw with weak/injured seeds in his path early. Might be a smokey if luck goes his way. 150

12. Robredo - good claycourter but struggles against the best. Faces 2004 finalist Coria in R1. Can't see him in week two. 500

13. Monaco - has the third most ATP points on clay but his titles have been weak events. R4 last year but beat no-one. Beaten by Seppi, Andreev, Almagro, Horna and Calleri on clay this year - that won't get him far here. A danger to lose to Soderling in R1. 500

14. Tsonga - hadn't played on clay for two years until this season - the joys of being able to pick and choose events when low-ranked. Won a few matches in Casablanca before his knee packed up. A doubt to start the tourney and couldn't possibly win anyway. 1000

15. Youzhny - loves the hardcourt, not so good on clay. Has won one of his past five matches, with a neck injury amongst that poor form. Easy first two rounds though. R4 here last year. 800

16. Moya - lost his first matches in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. Won three matches against qualifiers in Hamburg then got flogged by Nadal. Might reach the first weekend. 750

17. Baghdatis - not seen for a month, ankle injury apparently. Can see Bolelli sending him home for more recovery time on day one. 1000

18. Mathieu - faces Kuerten on day one who might as well be in a wheelchair. Should go a few rounds, but not likely to threaten. 800

19. Almagro - was looking good until injury in Rome. Into the top 20 now but a wrist injury generally means months rather than days. 26-5 on clay this year, yet no better than R2 in four visits to RG. Can't go near a player with wrist problems. 500

21. Stepanek - made the semis in Rome, beating Federer and Ferrer along the way, then retired with heat exhaustion. Poor Slam record, R4 here perhaps. 800

23. Ferrero - caught Nadal on a day with severe blisters in Rome, form outside of that is nothing flash. 800

24. Gonzalez - won Munich, injured in Rome (right leg injury). Hasn't looked like a top 10 player since early last year. 800

25. Hewitt - no hope even if he was fit. 1000

29. Canas - only win in last seven matches was over an Italian wildcard in Rome. Way off the boil. 1000

Can't see any others providing more than just nuisance value. Djokovic went very close to beating Nadal in Hamburg and he's the healthier of the pair. Federer just might see some resistance from the likes of Wawrinka and Davydenko. I'd rather be taking the chance at 6 or better on Betfair with Djokovic than the top two.

Back Djokovic 2pts at 6.0 or better.