How to Trade a Tote

How To Trade a Tote

With racing in much of the world dominated by the totalisator, you need to understand how the flow of money works. Harness this knowledge and you can trade profitably on an exchange, using tote prices as a key indicator of punter sentiment.

UK racing on Betfair will have markets posted the night before as the British betting public expect fixed-odds markets – the market share for the tote in the UK is single-digits. In Asia, Australia, and the US, it’s the tote that holds most of the bets so most of the action is in the last ten minutes before post time. Likewise with exchanges – because there is no (or only a limited) fixed-price assessment available, punters wait until the pools stabilise before getting heavily involved.

You can use this to your advantage if you take a step-by-step approach. With totes working to 115-120%, there is a significant chunk of ‘fat’ built in, but when the pools are so low that a 5/1 shot can halve its odds with one $1000 wager, you can’t dive straight into the deep end! But if you get in early, you may be able to back or lay runners at prices a long way from their final dividend, so don’t shy away from early business. Being brave enough to go up first can deliver great returns!

Imagine your proposed heaviest liability on this race to be 5X. Ten minutes before the race, be prepared to lay any runner to lose 1X. American tracks all use a pre-post market called the Morning Line – a price service which assesses the race to a ridiculous margin (150-200%), much the same as newspaper markets in Australia. You can’t base too much on them as they are not set by anyone who risks real money on them. If you happen to have access to early prices from an online bookie, then you can be a little more confident in their prices.

So for your opening ‘call’, lay the field to 1/5 the size of your max liability, and set the book to a wide margin. If you are first in line, then you can set your book as wide as you like, but remember we are trying to generate some business, so don’t get too ambitious. The table below lists the Morning Line prices, the tote prices (and size of the pool), and suggested odds you try to lay on each runner. Be prepared for significant changes in the tote as the pool builds. A Morning Line favourite who is much higher on the tote will most likely shorten late. Likewise, if a 20/1 shot in the early markets opens at 2/1 on the tote, it will probably drift markedly – but there may be reasons for the changes (important scratchings, track downgrade, perceived bias etc) so stay on the ball.

Stage One

	ML		Tote		Exchange
	ML		Tote		Lay At

Blacknwhiteflash	3 1/2	28.57%	6.5	15.38%	5	20.00%
Azaweri	8	12.50%	13	7.69%	11	9.09%
Tiger On Toe	12	8.33%	9	11.11%	11	9.09%
Money Down	10	10.00%	26	3.85%	16	6.25%
Backseat Driver	3	33.33%	4.7	21.28%	3.5	28.57%
Blazing Bureaucrat	15	6.67%	34	2.94%	30	3.33%
Sadlers Battler	8	12.50%	13	7.69%	10.5	9.52%
Lady Of The Down	10	10.00%	8	12.50%	10	10.00%
Via Veneto	8	12.50%	8.6	11.63%	8	12.50%
Italian Descent	5	20.00%	15	6.67%	7	14.29%
Berkshire	6	16.67%	9	11.11%	7.5	13.33%
Cryogenic Freezer	10	10.00%	24	4.17%	15	6.67%
		181.07%		116.02%		142.65%

				Hold 5000

If your fixed-odds comparisons are real prices, then their percentage will be much lower than the example, so you can be more confident with the prices you offer (which means lowering your market %). Important tip – to lay all runners to one amount (eg liability of 1X as mentioned above), click on that link when placing your bet offers (see the article on settings here). A box will pop-up where you can input the amount you wish to lay each runner for – saves you doing the calculations!

Stage Two

					Exchange
	ML		Tote		Lay At

Blacknwhiteflash	3 1/2	28.57%	5.5	18.18%	5.1	19.61%
Azaweri	8	12.50%	14	7.14%	13	7.69%
Tiger On Toe	12	8.33%	12	8.33%	15	6.67%
Money Down	10	10.00%	26	3.85%	23	4.35%
Backseat Driver	3	33.33%	5	20.00%	4.2	23.81%
Blazing Bureaucrat	15	6.67%	42