Part Four . . . Make Profits from Someone Else's Research

There are thousands of licensed bookmakers around the world - how many of them do you honestly think do all the hard work themselves? Realistically, very few. Most bookies will have their own area of expertise, but there simply aren't enough hours in the day for them to price up every market for every match in every league around the world by themselves.

Do some homework - work out who is good at certain events, particularly the less popular leagues. You could spend months working out who the best judge is on the English Premiership, but the matches are so popular and the exchange markets so tight, that it is very hard to make an earn as a 'trader'. The smaller the market, the more time you have to prepare.

Let's take a look at something more obscure as an example - the Conference. You've spent a few weeks following which bookmakers take an opinion on a match (by offering best price rather than being 'vanilla' or the same as everyone else), and now you are prepared to follow them by offering the same figures or slightly better than their prices on Betfair. The best part? You can set your risk amount to as much or as little as you like.

XYZBookie.com have had great opinions in recent weeks, so you want to lay any team they have best odds for. So from their market of Barnet v Halifax, you see that they are best price around on the home side at 1.80, with conservative prices of 3.30 the draw, 3.80 for Halifax - a market of 112%. Unless you are first to price the market up on the exchange, you will have to improve on those prices to jump to the front of the queue and get matched.

Click on 'Lay All', then offer a slightly better price on all options - say 1.82, 3.40, 4.10 - a market of 108.7%. You are now top price on the favourite, but still in the mix on the others, and with some margin (the 8.7%) up your sleeve to manoeuvre later. Click on 'Liability' to set how much you are prepared to lose on each selection. If you are keen to lay the home side as per the 'expert opinion' of XYZBookie, then offer to lay Barnet to lose £100, with just £50 of risk on the other pair. With your conservative prices on the draw & away options, you might not get matched anyway.

Note that when you are entering an amount as the 'lay' figure, this is the stake that the backer can take on the other side, NOT the risk - this is shown in the column to the right if you have selected the liability option rather than payout. So to risk £100 on Barnet at 1.82, you will need to offer £121.95 on your lay.

In smaller markets, don't expect these funds to be matched instantly. You may need to wait several hours or even a couple of days. Check back on the market every few hours to see your position. If you are still head of the market, then be patient. But if someone has jumped ahead of you, you will have to tweak your odds a little, remembering to keep the percentages in your favour. This might sound like a lot of hassle, but it can reward you greatly if you take the time to mould the market your way.

And remember this - if you get to the market first, you can post offers as short as you like. At least 3/4 of exchange punters are market TAKERS rather than market MAKERS - they either don't understand the concept of value or aren't prepared to risk it. Lay low, back high and you'll be well on the road to success on the exchanges!

Scott Ferguson

This article is protected by international Copyright © Elk Publications Pty Ltd October 2004